Somewhere only we know
As Missouri goes, so goes the nation. This is a statement that the politically observant citizen of the state knows and knows well.
Missouri has gone with the winner of every Presidential election since 1904 with only one exception (in 1956, the state voted for Adlai E. Stevenson over Dwight D. Eisenhower, several decades before the meth epidemic hit, so go figure). This state is, as they say, a bellwether state. Platte County, however, is a different case altogether.
As history tells us, this county supported the losing side of the Civil War and was content to be left alone while Jackson County – who supported the Union – took all of the spoils. A lot of Parkvillians don’t realize that Parkville, not Kansas City, was at one time considered the center of metropolitan region. After the war, Platte County took to striking back at the ballot box. Platte County voters voted against Abraham Lincoln. In fact, even though Missouri became a reliable vote for the next president, Platte County was a reliable vote for any Democrat who ended up on the ballot. This came to pass when Richard Milhouse Nixon won in Platte County in 1968. Then, the county voted for Reagan both times, Bush the Elder in 1988, and Bush the Younger in 2000 and 2004.
Now, the most pivotal election of our times looms and Platte County’s vote seems very much in play.
Behind the scenes, a very interesting story is developing. As reported in The Luminary several months ago, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani led in Platte County fund raising and in the statewide polls by a wide margin – his nearest competitor being Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.
Then, a funny thing happened – a guy named Huckabee hit the scene. And the guy he’s dancing with? The vaunted Jeff Roe of Kansas City’s Axion Strategies, an election consultancy that claims a 90 percent win ratio for candidates that sign on to their program.
That Mr. Roe, Congressman Sam Graves’ former chief of staff, backs Gov. Huckabee should come as little surprise – in today’s Republican landscape there was little else out there for him to support. Gov. Huckabee is the candidate who is carrying the Christian Right’s mantle and besides, Senator Kit Bond – a sworn Graves/Roe enemy is backing Giuliani. Missouri Governor Matt Blunt is backing Mitt Romney – perhaps that will help Independence land one of the Governor’s DREAM grants, since many Mormons believe that’s where the Garden of Eden once flourished. McCain? Well, forget him…he’s just too nice to the Mexicans for the strategists to support in these parts.
Dialing down, however, a more interesting story is playing out. Since turning into a Republican County, Platte County’s GOP has been in the midst of a ideological civil war of its own. When the Jeff Roe forces helped unseat former Platte County Commissioner Matt Short from office (using issues like abortion, critics point out, an issue a county administrator does not directly deal with), the divide became more stark. The divide manifested itself in many ways – the Platte County Pachyderms, a self-described “Reagan Republican” group was formed, and they host several area politicians from time to time, exerting whatever influence it is they’re supposed to exert. They stand, I suppose, in contrast to the powers that be on the Republican Central Committee, the group that is charged with recruiting Republican candidates and setting the tone for the party’s activities in the county. They are, I suppose, generally regarded as “Strom Thurmond Republicans” by observers.
In Platte County, the Giuliani campaign is headed by Jacob Black, a former employee of Mr. Roe’s. The campaign’s local captain is Lee Pedego, the former head of the Pachyderms. Other party moderates – Michael Short and Michael Gunn, for instance – have their hand in the campaign, too. They have their work cut out for them. After leading in Missouri polls for much of the past year, the Huckabee train has rolled into the station, and a recent Rasmussen poll has him in the lead over Rudy (though other polls still show Giuliani with the edge). Huckabee’s Christian message of having pardoned or commuted the sentences of more than a thousand prisoners (Mr. Christian is also quick to point out that under his watch, he has executed more prisoners than his opponents in the race) is apparently gaining traction.
The Giuliani campaign has its work cut out for them with the primary being held on February 5. Will Mr. Giuliani be able to get his message across? On the Democratic side, Mrs. Clinton, the transplanted Arkansas candidate, holds a lead in the polls. Something tells me that a good cry won’t propel Rudy to a surprise victory, but the idea of having yet another president from Arkansas, one of our most backward states, is enough to bring a tear to my eye.
Let the gamesmanship begin.